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laptop0909 on Monday, January 04, 2010 10:38:25 PM
Lin Yan: China's market in the global wind power industry over the next opportunity to
In 2009 for the global wind energy market, it is very difficult year, credit and investor confidence Compaq
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decreased. However, as wind power is to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions, one of the main ways, many governments have already
indicated that he would continue to support the national policy of the
wind power industry. On the issue of energy security and global warming
concerns, as well as the increased demand for electricity in developing
countries and Japanese competitive wind farm construction costs, have
decided the global wind power market will grow steadily, policy support
and other factors will be to make wind energy industry to survive the
financial crisis.
World-renowned growth consulting company Frost
& Sullivan research shows that in recent years, global wind power
industry, in general, show a sustained, rapid development trend of the
growth of the world's wind power industry in key areas began to shift
from Europe to Asia and North America. In 2008 the world's new wind
power installed capacity of about 27.26 million KW, an increase of 29%
over last year, the cumulative installed capacity reached 121 million
KW, an increase of 42%. 2008 global wind power capacity of 260 billion
KW.h, in the global proportion
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of total generating capacity in 2000 of 0.25% to 2008 by 1.5%.
Cumulative wind power installed capacity up to 10 countries accounted
for 86% of the world's total installed capacity.
The status quo of China's wind energy industry
The
size of the Chinese mainland for the development of wind energy
resources are mainly concentrated in the interior of the northeast,
northwest, north and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau areas, such as Xinjiang,
Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other places, as well as the southeast coast
and nearby islands, its annual wind speed at 3m / s over time of nearly
4000h or so, in some areas the average annual wind speed of up to 6 ~
7m / s and above, with a great value to the development and utilization.
As
the wind energy resource-rich, China's wind Presario 900 power
industry, long-term development prospects, but growth will slow down
compared to previous years. China's installed capacity of wind power
from 2001 to 402,000 KW up to 2008's 8.38 million KW, since 2004
China's installed capacity of wind power growth has been higher than
the global average. Frost & Sullivan estimated that by 2020 the
total installed capacity of wind power in China will exceed 150 million
KW, 2009 ~ 2020 the cumulative installed capacity of the compound
annual growth rate of 20% ~ 30%, far lower than the previous years
growth rate of close to 100% of the installed capacity.
China's wind energy market investment opportunities
The
Chinese government will soon introduce a new energy industry
revitalization plan will greatly increase the wind power installed
capacity. According to Frost & Sullivan forecast that by 2020,
China's wind power installed capacity will break through 150 million
KW, the state will focus on construction of the following six Grade 10
million KW of wind power base: Presario 1700 10 million KW of Gansu
Jiuquan wind power base construction plan-level total installed
capacity of 35.65 million KW, has completed the first phase of the wind
turbine to invite tenders. The rest of 10 million KW wind power base in
the planning stage are as follows: Xinjiang Hami planning 20 million
KW; Inner Mongolia, planning and construction of 50 million KW, which
Mengxi 20 million KW, Mondon 30 million KW; Hebei planning in coastal
and northern areas of the building 10 million KW; Jiangsu Province
plans to build 10 million KW, of which 7 million offshore KW.
China's current investment in wind farm developer is mainly the central and Armada E500
local
state-owned power generation enterprises and state-owned energy
enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises less.
New installed capacity in 2008, the five power generation groups and
energy group projects about 76%. Wind power operators in the degree of
concentration is increasing.
China's wind energy investment opportunities in the manufacturing sector
At
present, China's domestic wind power industry has become covered by
leaves, gear boxes, generators, towers and other major components of
the production system. Wind power machine according to supply and
demand situation, leaves and machine production capacity the past two
years more than the projected market demand for the next two years,
overcapacity will occur. According to the Chinese government's wind
power development plan, 2009 to 2010 will add 10 million KW, and 12
million KW. Statistical machine the major domestic manufacturers of
A1175 wind power capacity expansion plans, 2009 and 2010, respectively
machine efficient market capacity reached about 1100,1900 million KW.
Huarui
from the wind power, gold wind technology and Dongfang Electric
capacity projections, which the top three firms in 2009 and 2011
capacity is expected to reach 7.6 million, respectively, 11 million and
15 million KW. Moreover, China's current production of wind power
machine manufacturers in their sixties and seventies, mostly in 2006
and 2007 began to research and development.
2009 ~ 2010 will
enter the small-batch production phase, the wind power machine
manufacturers will start in the next few years the fierce market
competition, excess capacity of wind power machine is bound to lead to
product prices and profit margins decline. Currently fan margins are
not high, gold wind technology, for example, in 2008 the product gross
margin was 18% ~ 28%, Dongfang Electric's gross margin in 2008 is only
around 11%.
Domestic leaf production enterprises increased A1185
rapidly in recent years. At the same time, since the share of
higher-value machine, wind power machine companies also tend to produce
their own blades. Domestic leaf production has increased rapidly over
the future market demand.
However, the supply of bearings there
are still some gaps, there is a market for investment opportunities.
Wind turbine main bearing is currently almost entirely dependent on
imports of other parts of bearings, such as yaw bearings and variable
propeller bearings, domestic production of only a few companies can.
Technical barriers to wind power bearing higher from the current
situation, due to the ordering of key equipment such as machine tools
need a certain cycle, therefore, wind power bearing to achieve a
balance between supply and demand of the time will be late, bearing the
high gross margin is expected to be able to a longer period of time can
be maintained.
China's wind energy investment opportunities in complementary markets
Frost & Sullivan believes that wind power generation supporting industries in the energy storage
discount laptop battery
market presents tremendous investment opportunities. Energy storage
battery can solve the intermittent wind power impact on power issues,
to ensure the continuity and stability of the transmission grid.
When
the grid-style large-scale wind farms installed capacity accounted for
a total capacity of grid system where the ratio of 10% or more, we need
to stabilize M9324 the voltage of the battery energy storage. The
assimilative capacity of wind power for local consumption by the local
power structure of state influence. Measure of the local consumptive
capacity of wind power indicator is mainly wind power penetration
limit, that is, installed capacity of electric power system, stroke,
the proportion of total system installed capacity, that is, peaking
power capacity margin to accommodate the wind power installed capacity.
The structure of power generation installed capacity in different
areas, its consumptive capacity of wind power is different. According
to wind power around the building and planning level, the 2010 Inner
Mongolia, Gansu and northeast wind power installed capacity will reach
the local power grid for more than 10% of the total installed capacity
has exceeded regional power-consumptive wind power capacity to the
limit. In addition, wind power can cause power quality decline, M8403
harmonic pollution, large-scale wind power grid can cause power grid
voltage and frequency instability. In order to ensure safe and stable
operation of power grid, power grids, battery energy storage needs for
support.
Large-scale wind farm storage capacity of the
notebook battery
for more than MW. Energy storage battery can power the effective use of
peak-valley difference, improve the efficiency of power transmission
and distribution equipment to address the local voltage control
problems, improve electricity reliability and power quality
improvement. With the rapid development of wind power generation,
energy storage and battery power will be safe, stable and efficient
operation of an important ancillary facilities.
Wind power
energy storage battery can choose to use lead-acid batteries,
nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium batteries, sodium sulfur
batteries, alum batteries and super capacitors. At this stage,
lead-acid type battery technology is already mature, and nickel-metal
hydride batteries, lithium batteries, sodium sulfur batteries, alum
battery and super capacitor is still in development stage. As the
lead-acid battery with a excellent performance and low cost, in the
field of wind power energy storage
computer battery there will be a better return M7318 on investment.
Valve-regulated lead-acid
replacement laptop battery
with its mature technology and low prices in the market were
overwhelmingly dominant, but with the improvement of technology, the
manufacturers, the price level more or less of lead-acid gel batteries
for its longer life and greater The capacity will gradually become an
alternative to the user is expected to 2015, gel batteries from the
2008 total market share of 5% to nearly 20%. Other types of batteries
in the short term will not be able to replace lead-acid type of
batteries market PowerBook G3 position.